Li Jinwei: Consequences of US House Speaker's recent visit to Taiwan

According to Xinhua News Agency on April 7, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian responded to the news that Pelosi will visit Taiwan on April 10. Zhao Lijian pointed out that this visit will seriously affect Sino-US relations. If Pelosi visits Taiwan, China will take firm and effective measures. Zhao Lijian emphasized that the Beijing government firmly opposes any form of official exchanges between the United States and Taiwan, and pointed out that the United States should cancel the visit. Zhao Lijian added that the US side should be responsible for the negative impact of the visit.

The first release of the US House of Representatives Speaker Pelosi is not the Associated Press, nor the Voice of America or other US media, but as of midnight Beijing time on April 7th when the author wrote this article, almost all US media have not reported or mentioned anything. However, in the early morning of April 8th, Beijing time, the author just learning from the official news of the United States that Pelosi had just contracted an asymptomatic infection of the new crown, and his visit to Taiwan was postponed (the current isolation period in the United States is 5 days)So who posted the first news first? The first news was released by the Taiwanese media on the morning of April 7. The basic content is that April 10 is the 43rd anniversary of the passage of the Taiwan Relations Act by the United States on providing military assistance to Taiwan. Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Pelosi will visit. Taiwan. Only then did the Singaporean state media, the Japanese state media and the British Reuters forward it, and the Xinhua News Agency quoted the major news that the most important US politician was about to visit Taiwan, which the media had begun to quote.

Who is Pelosi?

Nancy Patricia Pelosi (née D'Alessandro; born March 26, 1940) was an American politician from 2007 to 2011 Served as Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives and will serve again in 2019. She has served in the U.S. House of Representatives (California District) since 1987. As a Democrat, Pelosi is the first female speaker of the House of Representatives in U.S. history. She ranks second in the U.S. presidential succession line, behind Vice President Harrison.

She entered politics with her father, Thomas D'Alessandro Jr., became a member of Congress in 1987 and will be serving her 18th term starting in 2021. His father served as a member of the U.S. House of Representatives (Maryland District) and mayor of Baltimore. Pelosi is the head of the California congressional delegation. She originally belonged to California's Fifth District (1987–1993). Redistricted after the 1990 census, she was drawn into the eighth district (1993–2013), and after 2013, the twelfth district, which included four-fifths of the city and county of San Francisco. She has been House Democratic leader since 2003 and is the first female House party leader, including minority leader from 2003–2007 and 2011–2019.

Pelosi opposed starting the Iraq war and the Bush administration's attempt to partially privatize Social Security. During her first term as Speaker, she actively promoted many Obama administration bills, including the Affordable Care Act, the Dodd-Frank Act, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, and the 2010 Tax Cuts Act.

Pelosi lost the speakership after the Republicans won the House majority in the 2010 midterm elections and became House Minority Leader. But she remains the leader of the House Democratic caucus. After the 2018 House election, Democrats regained control of the House. On January 3, 2019, the 116th Congress was held, and Pelosi was re-elected as Speaker, becoming the first former Speaker to return to the original post since Sam Raeburn in 1955. Under Pelosi's leadership, the House impeached President Trump twice on December 18, 2019, and January 13, 2021, but both were acquitted by the Senate. Since Biden took office, she has actively promoted a series of bills in the Biden administration, including the US Investment Law and the US Rescue Program Law.

On the issue of dealing with China, Nancy Pelosi has been known for her constant attention to human rights in China since she was a congressman. etc. On June 12, 2007, he issued a statement in his capacity as Speaker of the House of Representatives asking the United States to intervene in the investigation into the exploitation of child labour by Chinese manufacturers. Pelosi was arrested and detained for a few days for protesting the June 4 incident in China in 1989. In 1991, Pelosi displayed a banner in Tiananmen Square in Beijing that reads "Dedicated to the martyrs who sacrificed for the cause of democracy in China". was deported for this.

Pelosi also proposed the Chinese Student Protection Act, which would provide asylum to Chinese students during the June 4th Incident. In 1992, Pelosi was awarded the 7th Outstanding Democracy Award by the China Democracy Education Foundation, an anti-Chinese government formed by the Chinese democracy movement.

Pelosi and former Senate Democratic Minority Leader Harry Reid belong to the China hardliners in the Democratic Party, advocate human rights dialogue with China, and often criticize China's human rights situation.

On March 21, 2008, after a meeting with the 14th Dalai Lama and Tibetan government-in-exile officials, Pelosi criticized the Chinese government's handling of the 2008 Tibet riots and called on "freedom-loving" people around the world to condemn it Government of china.

"bold decision" of the European Parliament to award dissident and human rights activist Huja Sakharov the Freedom of Thought Prize. "I appeal to my government for the immediate and unconditional release of Hu Jia and respect for the fundamental freedoms of all Chinese people," she said in a statement.

In November 2015, Pelosi led a delegation of U.S. congressmen to visit China and, under China's arrangement, visited the Tibet Autonomous Region. Pelosi met Zhang Ping, vice-chairman of China's National People's Congress, in Beijing after her trip to Tibet. Zhang Ping asked her how her trip to Tibet was. Reporters at the meeting couldn't hear Pelosi's answer at the time. The official Tibetan newspaper said Pelosi appreciated changes and religious freedom in Tibet, but foreign media did not hear Pelosi's comments about her visit to Tibet.

In August 2017, Pelosi criticized the jailing of Hong Kong pro-democracy activists involved in the retake of "Citizen Square," a ruling she called unfairly.

Before the Trump administration launched a U.S.-China trade war against China in late March 2018, Pelosi and other Democrats urged Trump to pay more attention to China and impose practical penalties, fulfilling his campaign promise to list China as a currency Manipulate state and prevent China from pressuring the U.S. to get tech companies to give up intellectual property. Pelosi urged Trump to take a firm stance on China's unfair competition practices.

On June 4, 2019, in a hearing, Pelosi praised the demonstrations at the June 4 candlelight evening in Victoria Park in Hong Kong as "a beautiful landscape" given "China's recent actions towards Hong Kong".

On June 12, 2019, Pelosi stated solidarity with the Hong Kong demonstrators who opposed the amendment to the law, and said that "the United States is with the citizens of Hong Kong."

On June 19, 2019, Pelosi criticized China for violating one country, two systems at a breakfast sponsored by the Christian Science Monitor. When the reporter asked about the situation in Hong Kong, Pelosi pointed out that "2 million people took to the streets to oppose the extradition bill, accounting for a quarter of Hong Kong's population, which is a beautiful sight."

In September 2019, Pelosi met with Hong Kong pro-democracy activist Zhifeng Wong on Capitol Hill.

In April 2020, the Hong Kong police arrested 15 prominent pro-democracy figures, and Pelosi urged the White House to implement the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act.

From Pelosi's attitude and position on the China issue and the legislative measures taken above, it can be seen that Pelosi is not an ordinary American politician, but a very important politician and her position on China is not friendly. To be clear, in Chinese terms it is hostile.

Why is Pelosi a very important current American politician? This is mainly related to his role as the Speaker of the House of Representatives. The House of Representatives of the United States is one of the two wings of the United States Congress formed with the United States Senate. All laws, fiscal powers, foreign wars, etc. in the United States require the approval of the United States Congress. The U.S. Congress is also an important pillar of the separation of powers in the U.S. political system, that is, the U.S. political system cannot be dictated by one person. In the early years, American politicians took Christianity as their founding principle after winning the War of Independence against Great Britain in 1783. , revealing the sinful weakness of human nature. For the long-term stability of the United States, it is necessary for the President, the Congress composed of the Senate and the House of Representatives, and the Supreme Court composed of 9 justices to share political rights and check and balance each other to determine the mechanism of American political operation. The mechanism has been in operation for more than 230 years and will continue to operate.

What are the consequences of such a current heavyweight American politician's visit to Taiwan?

A、  Because Pelosi is not an ordinary little person, nor is she the Secretary of State of the United States. Her authority is far higher than that of the Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense of the United States. She is the No. 3 person in the United States and the No. 2 person at a critical moment. The law she presides over is the United States. Presidents have to implement it. For example, the "US-Taiwan Relations Act" means that all US presidents for more than 40 years must use this US Taiwan Relations Act to sell weapons to Taiwan, and also use this US domestic law to protect Taiwan. If the Chinese mainland uses force to change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait, the United States can intervene militarily if the Chinese mainland uses force to change the status quo. This consequence has existed for more than 40 years. China and the United States have different interpretations of the Taiwan issue. The legal basis and political basis for reference are different. China uses the three Sino-US joint communique as the basis, while the United States not only has the Taiwan Relations Act but also has 6 items against Taiwan. guarantee.

B、  The consequences in the future will be that, if Pelosi successfully visits Taiwan, based on Pelosi's pivotal position in the US political arena and control of the legislative power, it is likely that new Taiwan-related bills will be enacted in the next few years to strengthen Taiwan's confrontation. There are various types of bills, including political, military, diplomatic, and economic.

C、  War in the Taiwan Strait is that after Pelosi visits Taiwan, how the United States and Taiwan will deepen their exchanges, and how the two heads of state view the Taiwan Strait issue, will determine the prospects of the Taiwan Strait, anyone else's guess Well, it's all to no avail. The following is a 2-point excerpt from today's Weibo article by Hu Xijin, the former editor-in-chief of the Global Times under the People's Daily :

We should issue a statement asking the United States and Taiwan to abandon Pelosi's plan to visit Taiwan, otherwise, we will take stern action to declare China's sovereignty over Taiwan. Once the United States and Taiwan insist on pushing Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, then I suggest that the mainland take unprecedented action to prevent Pelosi's visit from going on normally. There are many options to choose from, I'll suggest two here:

First, it was announced that the sky over Taiwan would be closed on the 10th and a no-fly was implemented. The People's Liberation Army dispatched a large number of fighter jets to fly around the island of Taiwan to ensure the implementation of the no-fly. Due to Pelosi's provocation, China's new way of exercising its sovereignty over Taiwan is the logical reason for the "Taiwan independence" action to accelerate cross-strait reunification.

Second, the PLA fighter jets flew over the island of Taiwan on the day Pelosi visited Taiwan, either from west to east from the strait, or from the direction that Pelosi took a plane into the island. For this reason, our army must make comprehensive emergency preparations. If the Taiwan military opens fire on our fighter jets, the PLA should shoot down the aircraft, or carry out destructive strikes on the Taiwan military base where the missiles were launched.

Don’t over-interpret Hu Xijin’s remarks and don’t place high hopes. When he was the editor-in-chief, he always advocated, for example, if there is an American military plane or American soldiers appearing in Taiwan, it will be the time when Taiwan will be reunited by force, and China will produce 1,000 nuclear weapons. In the past two years, U.S. military planes have entered and exited Taiwan many times, and some U.S. military personnel have assisted in training Taiwanese military personnel as early as Taiwan. Can it be declared on behalf of the Chinese government? Hu Xijin's remarks have already attracted the attention of Western countries, so when Zhang Ming, the Chinese ambassador to the EU, was asked by reporters about Hu's words last year, Zhang Ming, the Chinese ambassador to the EU, replied that as a media person, he does not represent the Chinese government. The ambassador's answer, but will the heads of the EU countries believe it? If Hu Xijin's words become a reality, it is very likely to trigger a large-scale war or the third world war. Mr. Hu does not know the cruelty of war. The vast majority of the unlucky people in any war are ordinary people. This is the case, and now the United Nations is holding the blame, and the same is true of Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine as ruled by the International Court of Justice.

D、  Of various exchanges between China and the United States may be more difficult. At present, the exchanges between China and the United States are already very difficult, and the Cold War is continuing. Although neither side has stated it clearly, this is the reality. The Trump administration started a trade war, and the Biden administration basically maintained Trump’s approach in its stance toward China, and some even went further. In terms of U.S.-Taiwan exchanges, the United States and Taiwan have walked the most since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States more than 40 years ago. Closely, the current approach of the Biden administration is to continue to adopt a vague approach. However, since the US-Taiwan military diplomacy has substantially advanced its exchanges with Taiwan, it is possible to start from vague and clear. If it continues to develop, major diplomatic and military changes cannot be ruled out.

Dr. Li Jinwei

20220408 1：00（Beijing time)

The author is an international relations expert and a Harvard scholar