李锦维：五大核武国联合声明的意义
2022新年刚开始的1月3日，中华人民共和国、法兰西共和国、俄罗斯联邦、大不列颠及北爱尔兰联合王国和美利坚合众国认为，避免核武器国家间爆发战争和减少战略风险是我们的首要责任。
这份联合声明是比较罕见的，罕见的原因是近2年东西方进入事实上的冷战以及俄罗斯和乌克兰、台海和南海紧张局势背景加上瘟疫大流行继续进行中出现的东西方联合声明，而且是有关高度关注的核武器，与其2年来的瘟疫大流行截止今天已经导致550万全球生命的丧失，不如动用核武器只不过是分秒之时。所以在非常时刻，联合国五大常任理事国并身兼五大核武国首脑们在联合国框架下为了世界和平签署并发表了联合声明就能理解并且欢迎。笔者在旧年12月14日参加全球外交政策顶级智库排名第5的斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所就核武器视频研讨会上就已经知道五大国继续就措辞方面在磋商已经多个月，半个月之后就有了联合声明，因此这是关系到全人类的一件和平进程中的大事。
联合声明的主要内容是：
1.我们申明核战争打不赢也打不得。鉴于核武器使用将造成影响深远的后果，我们也申明，只要核武器继续存在，就应该服务于防御目的、慑止侵略和防止战争。我们坚信必须防止核武器进一步扩散。
2.我们重申应对核威胁的重要性，并强调维护和遵守我们的双、多边不扩散、裁军和军控协议和承诺的重要性。我们将继续遵守《不扩散核武器条约》各项义务，包括我们对第六条的义务，“就及早停止核军备竞赛和核裁军方面的有效措施，以及就一项在严格和有效国际监督下的全面彻底裁军条约，真诚地进行谈判”。
3.我们愿保持并进一步增强各自国家措施，以防止核武器未经授权或意外使用。我们重申此前关于不瞄准的声明依然有效，重申我们不将核武器瞄准彼此或其他任何国家。
4.我们强调愿与各国一道努力，创造更有利于促进裁军的安全环境，最终目标是以各国安全不受减损的原则建立一个无核武器世界。我们将继续寻找双、多边外交方式，避免军事对抗，增强稳定性和可预见性，增进相互理解和信任，并防止一场毫无裨益且危及各方的军备竞赛。我们决心在相互尊重和承认彼此安全利益与关切的基础上开展建设性对话。
5.中国、俄罗斯、美国、英国、法国是得到《不扩散核武器条约》承认的五个法定有核国家，它们同时也是联合国安理会的常任理事国。五国在星期一发表的关于防止核战争与避免军备竞赛的联合声明中表示，避免核武器国家间爆发战争和减少战略风险是他们的首要责任。
作为现任联合国秘书长的古特雷斯赞赏核武器国家承认它们需要遵守双边和多边不扩散、裁军和军备控制协定和承诺，包括它们根据《不扩散核武器条约》承担的与核裁军有关的具有约束力的义务。古特雷斯在声明中表示，令他感到鼓舞的是，核武器国家承诺采取措施防止核战争，这符合他为此目的进行对话与合作的长期呼吁。他期待着进一步了解未来举措的细节。古特雷斯借此机会重申:消除所有核风险的唯一途径是消除所有核武器，并重申愿意与核武器国家和所有会员国合作，尽快实现这一目标。
《不扩散核武器条约》缔约国第十次审议大会原定于2022年1月4日至28日在纽约联合国总部举行。由于新冠病毒变异株奥密克戎造成新一波疫情蔓延，此次审议大会被推迟举行。
《不扩散核武器条约》于1968年达成、1970年生效，目前有191个成员国。
当前五大核武国部署/大约总数情况
美国1600枚/6185枚
俄罗斯1600枚/6500枚
英国120枚/215枚
法国280枚/300枚
中国280枚/350枚
五大国首次/最后一次核试验/全面禁止核试验签署情况
美国1945/1992/签署
俄罗斯1949/1990/批准
英国1952/1991/批准
法国1960/1996/批准
中国1964/1996/签署
其它非《不扩散核武器条约》拥核国家/全面禁止核试验签署情况
印度130枚-140枚/末签署
巴基斯坦140枚-150枚/末签署
朝鲜20枚-30枚/末签署
以色列60枚-400枚/签署
联合声明后的24小时内的联合国和几大核武国反应
联合国秘书长古特雷斯1月3日通过发言人对五个核武器国家领导人就防止核战争与避免军备竞赛发表联合声明表示欢迎。
中国外交部副部长马朝旭1月4日接受媒体采访表示这是五国领导人首次就核武器问题发表声明，体现了五国防止核战争的政治意愿，也发出了维护全球战略稳定、减少核冲突风险的共同声音。同日中国外交部军控司司长傅聪告诉记者，“中国将继续对其核武库进行现代化改造，以解决可靠性和安全性问题”。傅聪在记者会中强调，“美国和俄罗斯仍然拥有地球上90%的核弹头，他们必须以不可逆转和具有法律约束力的方式削减其核武库”。
俄罗斯克里姆林宫发言人佩斯科夫1月4日对俄新社表示，莫斯科仍认为核国家之间"有必要"举行峰会为此次声明发出动议。克里姆林宫欢迎５国声明的签署，并称希望此举有助于缓解全球紧张局势。俄外交部在一份声明中说："我们希望，在当前国际安全局势严峻背景下，同意发表这样的政治声明能有助于缓和国际紧张局势。"
法国政府1月4日也表示，将继续推动双边以及多边的核武控制。
美联社1月4日发表的一篇报道说，“拜登政府过去一年在对美国的核武政策进行全面的内部评估和检讨，以拜登总统过去在核武问题上的立场，外界此前期待他可能会进一步削减美国核武数量，甚至做出“不首先使用核武”的承诺，但是由于中国和俄罗斯威胁的提升，拜登政府内部似乎失去了改变美国核武政策的动力。”
美联社这报道内的拜登政府内部对改变美国核武政策失去动力也来源于裁军谈判会议。2020年7月日内瓦裁军谈判会议在瑞士万国宫举行，美国裁军大使伍德引述《环球时报》总编辑胡锡进发表关于中国应将核弹头数量扩充至1,000枚的言论，要求中方作出解释。据中国裁军大使李松在会上回应指，一位报纸主编在个人微博上发表的看法，不能代表中国军控政策。
胡总编辑最近已经退休，但是当时在位时发表中国应将核弹头扩充至1000枚的言论引起了西方国家的警觉和怀疑，毕竟胡是人民日报旗下的环球时报，这是一份代表中国政府的国际性报纸，在国际上具有举足轻重的影响。
联合声明的意义
联合声明已经公布了，这是纸上协议公布于全世界，从现实各方面情况看，东西方的紧张对立情况仍会持续相当时间，这不单单是贸易经济制裁引发的对立，而是不同文化、信仰、体制、经济发展而传承的意识形态长期冲突而出现的百年大变局的过程之中，所以纸上归纸上，有承诺比没有承诺要好，其中的关键是未来在进程中看谁能够履行承诺这是比较重要的，否则就会出现核竞赛，核竞赛危及的世界和平及人类的生存。
联合声明只是一个框架，后面各大国为了自己的各类利益得继续进行长年谈判，谈判过程中还会有很多重大问题或重大事件发生，所以道路一定是曲折，前途是否光明目前无法预料也没有答案，因此只有走一步看一步。
李锦维
20220104
作者李锦维博士系国际关系和平研究专家，哈佛大学进修学者。
Significance of the Joint Statement of the Five Nuclear Weapon States
On January 3, when the 2022 New Year has just begun, the People’s Republic of China, the French Republic, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and the United States of America believe that avoiding wars among nuclear-weapon states and reducing strategic risks are our primary responsibility.
This joint statement is relatively rare. The rare reason is the fact that the East and the West have entered the de facto Cold War in the past two years, as well as the background of tensions between Russia and Ukraine, the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. It is about nuclear weapons of great concern. Instead of the two-year pandemic that has caused the loss of 5.5 million global lives as of today, the use of nuclear weapons is only a matter of seconds. Therefore, at an extraordinary moment, the five permanent members of the United Nations and the heads of the five nuclear-armed states signed and issued a joint statement for world peace under the framework of the United Nations can understand and welcome it. The author already knew that the five major countries had continued to negotiate on wording for many months at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, ranked 5th among the top global foreign policy think tanks, on December 14 of the previous year. With the joint statement, this is a major event in the peace process that concerns all mankind.
The main contents of the joint statement are:
1. We affirm that a nuclear war cannot be won or won. Given that the use of nuclear weapons will have far-reaching consequences, we also affirm that as long as nuclear weapons continue to exist, they should serve defensive purposes, deter aggression, and prevent war. We firmly believe that the further proliferation of nuclear weapons must be prevented.
2. We reaffirm the importance of responding to nuclear threats and emphasize the importance of maintaining and complying with our bilateral and multilateral non-proliferation, disarmament and arms control agreements and commitments. We will continue to comply with the obligations of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, including our obligations under Article VI, “on effective measures to stop the nuclear arms race and nuclear disarmament at an early date, A treaty on general and complete disarmament, negotiate in good faith."
3. We are willing to maintain and further strengthen our respective national measures to prevent the unauthorized or accidental use of nuclear weapons. We reiterate that our previous statement on non-targeting is still valid, and we reiterate that we will not target each other or any other country with nuclear weapons.
4. We emphasize that we are willing to work with all countries to create a safe environment that is more conducive to the promotion of disarmament. The ultimate goal is to build a nuclear-weapon-free world on the principle that the security of all countries is not compromised. We will continue to look for bilateral and multilateral diplomatic methods to avoid military confrontation, enhance stability and predictability, enhance mutual understanding and trust, and prevent an arms race that is useless and endangers all parties. We are determined to engage in constructive dialogue on the basis of mutual respect and recognition of each other’s security interests and concerns.
5. China, Russia, the United States, the United Kingdom, and France are the five statutory nuclear countries recognized by the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. They are also permanent members of the UN Security Council. In a joint statement on the prevention of nuclear war and the avoidance of an arms race issued by the five nations on Monday, they stated that it is their primary responsibility to avoid wars among nuclear-weapon states and reduce strategic risks.
As the current Secretary-General of the United Nations, Guterres appreciates that nuclear-weapon states recognize that they need to abide by bilateral and multilateral non-proliferation, disarmament, and arms control agreements and commitments, including their commitment to nuclear disarmament-related binding under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Obligations. Guterres said in the statement that he was encouraged by the nuclear-weapon states' commitment to take measures to prevent nuclear war, which is in line with his long-term call for dialogue and cooperation for this purpose. He looks forward to learning more about the details of future initiatives. Guterres took this opportunity to reiterate: The only way to eliminate all nuclear risks is to eliminate all nuclear weapons, and reiterated his willingness to cooperate with nuclear-weapon states and all member states to achieve this goal as soon as possible.
The Tenth Review Conference of the States Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons was originally scheduled to be held at the United Nations Headquarters in New York from January 4 to 28, 2022. The review meeting was postponed due to the spread of a new wave of epidemics caused by the mutant strain of the new crown virus Omi Keron.
The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons was concluded in 1968 and entered into force in 1970, and currently has 191 member states.
Current deployment of the five major nuclear powers/approximate total number of
US 1600/6185
Russia 1600/6500
UK 120/215
France 280/300
China 280/350
Signing of the first/last nuclear test/comprehensive nuclear test ban of the five major countries
United States 1945/1992/signature
Russia 1949/1990/approved
Britain 1952/1991/approved
France 1960/1996/approved
China 1964/1996/signed
other non-proliferation Nuclear-weapon Treaty countries/Comprehensive nuclear test ban signing status
India 130-140 / final signing
Pakistan 140-150 / final signing
North Korea 20-30 / final signing
Israel 60-400 / signing
joint declaration Responses from the United Nations and several major nuclear-armed states in the next 24 hours
United Nations Secretary-General Guterres welcomed the joint statement issued by the leaders of the five nuclear-weapon states on the prevention of nuclear war and the avoidance of an arms race through a spokesperson on January 3.
Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu said in an interview with the media on January 4 that this is the first time the leaders of the five countries have issued a statement on nuclear weapons. Common voice. On the same day, Fu Cong, Director of the Arms Control Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China, told reporters that "China will continue to modernize its nuclear arsenal to solve reliability and safety issues." Fu Cong emphasized at the press conference that “the United States and Russia still own 90% of the nuclear warheads on the planet, and they must reduce their nuclear arsenals in an irreversible and legally binding manner”.
Russian Kremlin spokesman Peskov told RIA Novosti on January 4 that Moscow still believes it is "necessary" to hold a summit between nuclear powers to issue a motion for this statement. The Kremlin welcomed the signing of the five-nation statement and said it hoped that this move would help ease global tensions. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement: "We hope that under the current severe background of the international security situation, agreeing to issue such a political statement can help ease international tensions." The
French government also stated on January 4 that it will continue. Promote bilateral and multilateral nuclear weapons control.
A report published by the Associated Press on January 4 stated that “The Biden administration has conducted a comprehensive internal assessment and review of the US nuclear weapons policy in the past year. Based on President Biden’s past position on nuclear weapons, the outside world expected He may further reduce the number of nuclear weapons in the United States and even make a promise to "not use nuclear weapons in the first place." However, due to the increased threats from China and Russia, the Biden administration seems to have lost the motivation to change the US nuclear weapons policy." The
Associated Press reported this . The loss of motivation within the Biden administration to change the US nuclear policy also originated from the Conference on Disarmament. In July 2020, the Geneva Conference on Disarmament was held in the Palais des Nations, U.S. Disarmament Ambassador Wood quoted "Global Times" editor-in-chief Hu Xijin's remarks that China should expand the number of nuclear warheads to 1,000, requesting an explanation from the Chinese side. According to Chinese Disarmament Ambassador Li Song's response at the meeting, the opinions expressed by a newspaper editor on his personal Weibo do not represent China's arms control policy.
Editor-in-chief Hu has recently retired, but when he was in power, the statement that China should expand nuclear warheads to 1,000 aroused alarm and suspicion in Western countries. After all, Hu is the Global Times under the People’s Daily, which represents the Chinese government. International newspapers have a decisive influence internationally.
Significance of the
joint statement The joint statement has been announced. This is a paper agreement that has been published around the world. Judging from all aspects of reality, the tension between the East and the West will continue for a long time. This is not just a confrontation caused by trade and economic sanctions. It is the process of a hundred years of major changes that have occurred due to long-term conflicts of ideologies inherited from different cultures, beliefs, systems, and economic development. Therefore, it is better to have a promise than no promise. The key is that the future is in progress. It is more important to see who can fulfill the promise, otherwise there will be a nuclear race, which endangers world peace and the survival of mankind.
The joint statement is just a framework. The major powers in the future have to continue to negotiate for their own interests. There will be many major issues or major events in the negotiation process. Therefore, the road must be tortuous, and whether the future is bright is currently unpredictable and unpredictable. The answer is therefore only one step at a time.
Li Jinwei
20220104
The author, Dr. Li Jinwei, is an expert in international relations and peace studies and a fellow at Harvard University.