李锦维：美中新冷战无法避免

冷战指的是第二次世界大战之后，以美国为首的资本主义阵营及其盟国、与以苏联为首的社会主义阵营及其卫星国之间长达半世纪的政治对抗。冷战始于1947年美国提出"杜鲁门主义"，结束于1991年苏联解体。冷战基本发生在列强国家之间的一种特别国际关系，这是对冷战的一般定义。冷战的反面就是热战，所谓热战就是炮火的战争。过去30年来，冷战继续表现形式有过2014年美俄冷战，美俄冷战的起因是俄罗斯使用武力吞并乌克兰领土克里米亚回归俄罗斯而导致，美国为首的西方世界从各个方面，特别是有条件的外交官互相驱逐、武器出口管制、加上各类经济贸易制裁围剿俄罗斯。过去几十年，中国实行改革开放国策，经济发展举世瞩目，根据中国国家统计局发布的的数据2012年中国国内生产总值（GDP）为8.56万亿美元，这个数据超过日本6.2万亿美元后就排名而言已经达到美国16.16万亿美元的的几乎一半而跃居世界第二。在中国经济总量排名世界第二之时，中国领导层也发生了变化，2012年习近平出任1982年之后中共第5任总书记并提出了雄心壮志的"中华民族伟大复兴的中国梦"口号。五年之后的2017年美国大选，唐纳德·特朗普获胜成为美国第45任总统，特朗普提出了"美国优先"口号。根据中美现职两位领导人的执政风格，从两位立志治理不同国家口号就知道，都是具有雄心壮志的强势领导人。而且美国和中国两个国家都是当今世界最具实力的国家。

美中新冷战的起因
要论述起因，必然要谈到一些与美中关联的重大历史事件，这些重大美中历史事件基本是：
1949年10月1日中华人民共和国建国，次年6月发生了北朝鲜南侵韩国的朝鲜战争，美国杜鲁门总统继续奉行以"遏制共产主义"作为国家政治意识形态和对外政策的指导思想而参与联合国军而此时的新中国为保卫马克思列宁主义，中共中央主席毛泽东应朝鲜最高领导人金日成将军要求"保家卫国跨过鸭绿江"发出抗美援朝指示，为此美中双方都深深卷入了这场百万人死伤惨重的战争，一打就是3年，美中由此真真交恶20年。由于美中交恶，美国对中国进行各类封锁，重点是经济封锁，美中交恶期间美国不承认中华人民共和国而是承认台湾国民党政府为中国政府，美国维系与台湾外交邦交的同时，常年提供国民党政府大量当时先进的武器以抗衡大陆共产党政府随时可能的收复台湾举措，所以中方也同时失去了收复台湾的壮举，台湾问题就一直成为大陆中国最重要的核心问题，直到今天也是如此。
中美真真交恶的20年实际上中美关系是处于冷战历史阶段，在这里我把其归类美中旧冷战阶段。

1972年2月美国总统尼克松应中国周恩来总理的邀请访华，中美交往的大门重新打开。尼克松访华期间，中美双方于1972年2月28日在上海发表了《中美联合公报》，也称：《上海公报》，标志着中美关系开始走向正常化。又过了7年，到了1979年元旦两国签订建交公报后才正式建立外交关系。1982年8月17日又签署了《八一七公报》全称《中美就解决美国向台出售武器问题的公报》，这是1972年-1982年10年中，中美外交关系3大联合公报中争议最大的公报。

1979年元旦中美双方签订建交公报外，美国总统卡特政府与台湾的"中华民国"断交的同日又生效《台湾关系法》以维护与台湾商业、文化，以及通过非官方关系建立起来的其他关系。
美中于1982年8月17日签署《中美就解决美国向台出售武器问题的公报》同时，美国又对"中华民国"政府提出《六项保证》，对此中国政府不承认美国对台湾的《六项保证》的效率。
2016年美国众议院与参议院通过共同决议案，肯定《六项保证》与《台湾关系法》皆是台美关系的指引方针并对台湾的承诺。

六项保证内容是：
1. 美国不赞成对台军售设定期限；
2. 美国并不寻求为台湾与中华人民共和国之间作调停；
3. 美国也不会施加压力要求台湾与中华人民共和国谈判；
4. 美国对台湾主权的长期立场没有改变；
5. 美国并无计划修改台湾关系法；
6. 八一七公报的内容并不表示美国对台军售之前会征询北京意见。从上美中建交可以看出美国虽然在联合声明内承认中华人民共和国为中国的唯一合法政府，但是美国的实质也是同步在搞两个中国或一中一台政策。

众所周知，美中两国的社会制度是完全不同的，美国是1787年制定的《美利坚合众国宪法》国家结构形式为联邦制，全民普选的行政总统、独立司法和立法国会三权制衡分立，主要是共和党和民主党两大政党轮替执政的自由资本主义联邦制度；中国是1949年10月1日共产党领导下的八个民主党派宣布接受《中国人民政治协商会议共同纲领》作为临时宪法，实行的是统一多民族的社会主义制度。1954年全国人民代表大会成立，同年产生了中华人民共和国第一部宪法，宪法规定中国是以工人阶级领导的、以工农联盟为基础的人民民主国家。

过去的41年来美中两国虽然在外交关系正常化的情况下各自按照自己的发展模式进行发展，不过在当今两国现行执政领导人之前的中美关系中各种纠纷和大小摩擦几乎年年有，然而总体方向是求大同存小异，中国在和平的环境中，特别是2001年11月在美国克林顿政府行政当局的支持下，同时以江泽民为总书记的朱镕基为总理的中国政府也作出开放市场的入世规定的各类承诺，于是2001年11月20日世贸组织总干事迈克尔o穆尔致函世贸组织成员，宣布中国政府已于2001年11月11日接受《中国加入世贸组织议定书》，从此中国入世，入世后的中国经济快速起飞和发展，经过10年时间中国经济总量达到世界第二。克林顿政府当初的想法是想让中国进入世贸组织后，让中国经济起飞的同时中国政治体制逐步转型到类似西方社会的自由民主政体。第二次世界大战后确立了以美国为主导的战后世界政治经济体系，说得明白就是美国作为世界警察，获得霸主的地位，特别在经济上美国不允其它国家能够超过他，类似先前的英国，后来的日本，当他们的经济总量能够逐步与美国抗衡时，美国不管其是谁，就会使用一切手段挥舞大棒进行打压；在政治上美国主要打压强大的从美国来看的敌对阵营，当初敌对重点国家的苏联为代表的东欧社会主义阵营，1989年在美国里根政府行政当局多年的软磨坚攻下，时任苏共总书记宣布解散苏联共产党导致强大的苏联突然解体，与之关联的东欧各社会主义国家纷纷倒下而改变社会主义国体，投入西方怀抱。 1989年后的中国在1978年邓小平倡导的改革开放的基础上继续实行韬光养晦着重经济发展，同时在社会主义兄弟国家大部分消失之后保持社会主义制度不变，坚定地走自己独立道路，这个独立道路就是具有中国特色的社会主义道路。在中国经济强大之时，中国提出并实施了大国外交政策和方向，这个政策和方向就是2011年时任中国国务院总理温家宝访问日本大震灾灾区时提出的"在自然灾害面前，人类是命运共同体"，后来中共第十八次全国代表大会报告被明确表述为"人类命运共同体"。到了2017年10月习近平总书记在中共十九大报告中明确表述："中国特色大国外交要推动构建新型国际关系，推动构建人类命运共同体。"而在中国的推动下，"呼吁构建新型国际关系、构建人类命运共同体"的内容也被写入联合国人权理事会决议。中国特色大国外交推动构建新型国际关系和构建人类命运共同体，而新型国际关系和人类命运共同体也被一并当作中国特色大国外交的两个方面，同时也是习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想的重要内容。由于中国经济快速壮大，中国资本积累庞大，为资本输出和海外投资创造了有利条件，以中国为领军的新的经济体一带一路逐年扩展，截至2019年10月底中国已与137个国家和30个国际组织签署197份"一带一路"合作文件。这一切美国行政当局，特别是特朗普当选后的行政当局对中国已经发生的令人刮目相看的变化都怀有警惕和不信任，在美国行政当局来看，中国从不遵守已经作出过的承诺，缺乏诚信，盗窃美国知识产权，破坏世界经济次序等等。美中两国不但国家制度各异，同时各自持有的意识形态、人本社会、法制社会、价值观、信仰、以及国家治理的方式又大不一样，近两年来美国从反恐转换成反共产主义这已经是公开化了，特别是现任美国副总统彭斯和国务卿蓬莱奥，几乎经常在各种重要场合和公开声明中能够见到他们坚决反共的各类演讲，特朗普总统有时公开演讲时也多次嘲笑社会主义，虽然是对委内瑞拉或古巴，但是其话中有话。美国国会众议院现任议长佩罗西也是一位在美国政坛上十分活跃的积极的反共政治领袖。

美中新冷战的形式

政治层面，美国发现通过给予中国加入世界贸易组织使中国经济大发展积累了庞大财富之后的近20年年，在政治上根本无法改变中国向自由民主国家转型，反而是走向威权主义，因此美国的"反共和反华"力量所要做的就是要营造一个新的冷战环境，与中国发生一场新冷战甚至热战一直是美国"反共和反华"力量梦寐以求的。美国一波又一波"中国威胁论"建立在美国近年来流行起来的新冷战思维之上。近代国际社会，政治制度的不同往往是国家之间对抗和冲突的重要根源之一。在这方面，美国和中国的价值观全然不同。中国相信不同政治制度和谐共存共同发展，而美国往往把具有不同政治制度的国家视为竞争者甚至敌人。现在美国基本的判断是中国"威权主义"趋于永久化。对美国来说，更为严峻的是，越来越多的国家会仿照中国的体制。这是对美国自由民主制度的最大挑战和最大"威胁"。

经济层面，对中国经济制度的冷战思维，中国改革开放以来，中国经济制度渐趋成熟，形成了具有自己特色的"混合经济模式"。近年来，美国一直在宣传中国"国家资本主义"的概念。正如前苏联经济模式是对美国自由资本主义模式的最大威胁，中国的"国家资本主义"已被认为是美国自由资本主义的最大经济威胁。特朗普当政后向全球各国开展贸易战，以逐步减缓或平衡美国与各国进出口贸易的逆差，特朗普政府发动的贸易战的重点国家就是中国，因为在过去的15多年中，美中贸易的逆差极不平衡，特朗普政府认为使美国的财富大大流向了中国，每年的贸易逆差差额在5,000亿美元，这么多年积累下来美国损失巨大，所以美国要与中国谈判要大规模减少贸易逆差，办法就是运用进口关税来调节，经过美中高阶层官员长达18个月10多次奔波2国进行讨价还价谈判，终于2020年1月15日在白宫签署中美贸易第一阶段协议，具有难度，也就是美国要中国在贸易上进行结构性改革的第二阶段谈判美国曾要接着马上继续谈判，后因发生了新冠肺炎全球大流行而耽搁了下来。

外交层面，1979年元旦中美建交之后，到中美各自新元首上任之前，也就是30多年间两国的外交关系总体上来看，是合作多于分歧，具体表现为双方之间小事的摩擦时常发生，大事偶然也发生，但是最终还是各自让步而化解，如： 1999年科索沃战争期间，当地时间5月7日夜间，北京时间5月8日，北约的美国B-2轰炸机发射5枚精确制导炸弹或联合直接攻击弹药击中了中华人民共和国驻南斯拉夫大使馆，当场炸死3名中国记者邵云环、许杏虎和朱颖，炸伤数十名其他人，造成大使馆建筑的严重损毁，是次军事行动演变为外交事件，大量华人到美国使馆外抗议，由于先前曾发生美军先进战机被击落，事件引发军事阴谋论，美国与北约官方则是声称误炸并同意赔偿了结。然而中美各自新元首上任之后，中美外交层面的情况发生了重大变化，中国开启了大国外交，截止2019年10月1日，也就是中华人民共和国成立70周年之际，与中国建交国总数上升至180个，并且在多个外交领域中国主动出击掌握了主动权，继续构建人类命运共同体、与137个国家和30个国际组织签订了197份一带一路合作协议。中国外交总体方针是中国的发展离不开世界，世界的和平发展、繁荣稳定离不开中国。世界好，中国才能好；中国好，世界才更好。中国始终把自身发展置于人类发展的坐标系中，始终把自身命运与世界各国人民命运紧密相连，始终把中国人民利益同各国人民共同利益结合起来，始终做世界和平的建设者、全球发展的贡献者、国际秩序的维护者，为构建人类命运共同体、建设更加美好的世界贡献智慧和力量。但是美国统治精英们对中国实施的外交政策不是这样认为的，他们认为中国实施的是咄咄逼人的"战狼外交"、一带一路的"新殖民外交"，在行动上美国公开对新近要与中国建交的国家，如2019年9月美国官员警告所罗门群岛政府不要迫于中国压力和中国建交……；

2018年9月19日美国司法部要求中国官媒新华社和中国中央电视台在美的分支机构打造的中国环球电视网登记成为"外国代理人"，与俄罗斯两家国营媒体公司在美国的待遇看齐。
2020年2月18日美国国务院宣布，将五家中国主流官方媒体机构认定为"外国使团"，视作中国政府的一部分并限制工作人员为100人。美国国务院称，这五家媒体机构分别为新华通讯社、中国环球电视网（CGTN）、中国国际广播电台（CRI）、《中国日报》发行公司，以及《人民日报》发行商美国海天发展公司。

作为反制措施，中国外交部则在2020年3月17日宣布，将驱逐在华运作的《纽约时报》、《华尔街日报》和《华盛顿邮报》的美国记者以及"美国之音"和《时代周刊》要向中国政府提供有关其运营的详细信息。同时指示这三家新闻机构年底前记者证到期的美籍记者"从即日起4天内向外交部新闻司申报名单，并于10天内交还记者证"。这三家新闻机构的几乎所有驻华记者的记者证都在今年到期。另近周来中国外交部新发言人赵立坚就已经引发世界大流行的新冠肺炎说病源3月13日在推特上用中英文发推文： "可能是美军把疫情带到了武汉。美国要透明！要公开数据！美国欠我们一个解释！"，美国国务院次日就召见中国驻美国大使崔天凯，就代表中国政府的外交部发言人暗示2019冠状病毒是由美军带进武汉一事表达强烈抗议。过了2天马上又引来了特朗普3次推特强调性质的回音和2次公开演讲，话语直指这是"中国病毒，这不是歧视是用语正确，我很尊敬习主席，但是这次疫情来自中国…"，特朗普还在3月22日在白宫举行记者会时，再次说："中国隐瞒疫情，我与中国国家主席习近平讨论此事，曾询问中国美方能否派员协助他们，但对方不想，亦没有回应"。此前美国国家安全顾问奥布莱恩3月11日指责中国最初应对疫情不力而且隐瞒疫情。中国外交部另发言人耿爽反驳说，奥布莱恩的说法"既不道德，也不负责任，而且对美国本国的疫情防控工作丝毫没有帮助"。同时美国国务卿蓬佩奥也指责中国当局最初隐瞒疫情。另外美国Axios记者乔纳森· 斯旺（Jonathan Swan）在采访时提到崔天凯上个月的一次表态--这是崔天凯2月9日在美国CBS电视台周日时政节目《面向全民》（Face the Nation）中对美国联邦参议员科顿的指控作出的回应。崔天凯当时说："有人说这些病毒是来自美方的军事实验室而不是中国的，这些疯狂言论我们怎么能相信？" 美国新闻网站Axios与有线电视台HBO合作制作播出的一档节目3月22日晚间发表了对中国驻美国大使崔天凯的一次专访。崔天凯在采访中说，由外交官来揣测新型冠状病毒的来源是"有害的"。崔天凯说："这是我的一贯立场。我当时这样认为，现在依然这样认为。对于这些问题，当然我们最终要找到答案，揭开病毒的来源，但这是科学家要做的工作，而不是由外交官或者记者来进行揣测的，因为这样的揣测对任何人都没有好处，而且非常有害。" 崔天凯同时还表明自己是中国元首在美的代表。3月23日中国外交部发言人耿爽强烈抗议特朗普的"中国病毒论"，同时美国境内出现了多起针对华裔美国人的攻击，在这个背景下，特朗普突然改口，说不再称"中国病毒"了，他的解释是："为了保护亚裔美国人不受歧视"。

军事层面，外交和国防是一个主权国家的象征，一个国家的强弱只要看一下这个国家的外交以及它的国防就可见一斑。中国经济迅速发展，必然带来军事的发展。
中华人民共和国武装力量由中国人民解放军、中国人民武装警察部队和中国民兵组成，采用"党指挥枪"的军事领导体系，由中央军事委员会领导全国武装力量，采取主席负责制，由中共中央军委主席统帅全军。中华人民共和国武装力量在国家安全和发展战略全局中具有重要地位和作用，肩负着维护国家主权、安全、发展利益的使命和职责。
美利坚合众国武装力量，通称美军，是美国的联邦武装部队，美军目前仍是世界整体军事实力最强的军队，其规模和装备均位于世界第一。美军分为六大军种，即陆军、海军、空军，太空军，海军陆战队，以及海岸警卫队以，由总统统帅全军。美国拥有世界上最庞大的核武器库，同时是世界唯一在实战中使用过核武器的国家。
美国五角大楼公布2019年度中国军力评估报告后，国防部印太安全事务助理薛瑞福具体介绍了中国利用外交、经济和军事影响力确保国际地位的尝试。薛瑞福说："我们的2019年报告发现，未来几十年，中国寻求繁荣强大，并且报告指出，中方有一个明确目标，即到2049年让中国军队成为世界级军队，中国可能把潜舰部署到北极地区，以吓阻对手的核攻击。中国继续增加生产DF-26中程弹道导弹，这种导弹能够对西太平洋和印度洋的地面和海军目标进行常规和核武的精确打击。中国使用多种手段获取外国技术，包括外国直接投资、建立国外研发中心、合资企业、研究和学术伙伴关系、以及工业和网络间谍等。我认为特别是在新领域，他们在网络、太空、高超音速、人工智能方面投入了大量资金。所以我们看到了非常咄咄逼人的，以大量资源支撑的（军事）现代化努力。"

美中军事实力6个方面比较：1.军费（2018年度），美国为6,000亿美元，中国为1,500亿美元；2.军事人员，美国133万人，中国233万人；3.陆军装备，美国8,900,中国9,100; 4.海军舰艇，美国415艘，中国714艘，艘航空母舰，美国10艘，中国2艘；5.空军，美国13,000架，中国2,500架；6.核导弹，美国1,750枚, 中国220枚。通过比较军事实力，美国比中国明显占据优势。
特朗普政府2017年12月、美国国防部2018年1月分别发表的《国家安全战略报告》与《国防战略报告》，都直接称中国和俄罗斯是美国的主要战略竞争对手，并声称美国将聚集资源应对中俄的挑战。白宫新闻发言人把美国的这份《国家安全战略报告》称之为美国"新时代的新国家安全战略"。这种称呼和中国领导人所提出"新时代"相呼应，其针对中国的目标昭然若揭。
由于美军据有军事绝对优势，因此在军事上美军在中国南海群岛、台湾海峡哪里继续经常性的耀武扬威，甚至多次进入南海群岛200海里内横冲直撞，还多次在台湾地区领导人选举或大陆军机飞跃台湾海峡中线或环绕之后的关键时刻由航空母舰打击群进入台湾海峡，其口号是："维护南海自由航行，维护台海稳定与和平"，每当出现这类情况后，中国国防部就提出强烈抗议，近周内还发生美国军舰竟然在南海诸岛实弹演习以及美军轰炸机飞领香港以秀军事实力和秀肌肉。

法律层面，法律层面我主要提及一下美国一些联邦议员通过提出法案由美国国会表决通过并经美国总统特朗普签字后已经成为法律的法律，这些法律都与中国有关而且都是美国的国内法：
2018年3月16日生效的《台湾旅行法》；
2018年12月20日生效的《西藏旅行对等法》；
2019年11月27日生效的《香港人权与民主法案》；
2020年3月26日生效的《2019年台湾盟邦国际保障与强化倡议法》；
除此之外还有《维吾尔人权政策法案》《2019西藏政策及支持法案》等都已经获得美国国会通过。
从美国立法机构的国会和行政当局的总统在法律层面公然公开堂而皇之进行这些法案提出、讨论、辩论后通过再以签字使之成为法律后由行政当局不得不去执行，非常明显这是美国强权政治对中国的一部分内容，也是美中新冷战的实质内容标记在法律层面上。
对美国公然严重干涉中国内政的每一次做法，中国政府包含中国人大、中国政协等政治机构都表示强烈愤慨和抗议。

其它层面，不是骨架层面，都是辅助层面，但也是十分重要的层面，我略微提一下而不再展开论述，类似通讯，重点是限制中兴通讯，华为通信，2018年12月1日华为副董事长兼财务长的孟晚舟被美国司法引渡要求在加拿大被逮捕是美国纽约东区联邦地区法院作出的主要是违法美国对伊朗制裁的法案指控，还有另外几十项犯罪指控。特郎普总统另于2020年3月12日签署《安全可信通信网络法》禁止联邦机构使用中兴和华为产品；孔子学院，美国认为是中国大外宣的一部分，不少人员都从事与职业不相关的活动，进行共产党红色革命输出和宣传；千人计划，美国逮捕了多名与千人计划有关的美国研究机构的研究人员，指控他们拿中国的大笔金钱而出卖高科技技术和信息；信息情报和计算机黑客，主要是指控并通缉多名有名有姓的在上海浦东的计算机军事人员侵入和盗窃美国多个重要联邦和军事机构的机密信息和数据；间谍，最近多年在美国与中国有关联的多名职业间谍被捕和被判处长短不一的入狱，同时与美国有关联的美国在华间谍网也早于2010-2012年间被中国摧毁，相应涉案间谍人员受到法律惩处；知识产权，是个老生常谈的问题了，美国一直认为中国常年并且严重侵犯了美国的知识产权导致美国每年6，000亿美元损失…..等多个方面层次的冷战都在积极进行中。

美中新冷战的特点

综述上面各个层面分析，美中新冷战的特点是由美国主导发起的，就是美国国家领导人公开反共、反社会主义亲自出马通过各类集会、演讲宣传倡导、外交冲前锋、军事作后盾，同步联盟一些立场上经常支持美国的国家共同对中国进行主动进攻型的新冷战。在新冷战一步一步展开过程中，限于军事上强大地位屈居第三的中国，抗新冷战的特点基本是处于被动和奉陪的方式，也就是防御型的特点。

美中新冷战的后果

美中新冷战的后果是极为严峻的，这种后果具有三种可能的发展前景：

第一种前景，就是逐步消除，对抗级别逐年降低，这就需要，特别是美国精英当局对中国的发展和崛起，现实进行承认，同时中国领导层需要调整相关对美政策，就是在和平的前提下，继续以互相诚意合作，求大同存小异，改进意识形态的宣传并与美国搞好关系，类似中国1979年改革开放刚起步时，邓小平复出后的首次访美，期间陪同出访的中国社科院副院长李慎之在飞机上问邓小平："我们为什么要这么重视同美国的关系？"邓小平回答说："回头看看这几十年来，凡是和美国搞好关系的国家，都富起来了。"至于社会制度的优劣由自己的国民去评判；

第二种前景，就是维持现状，也就是对美国主动型的新冷战打压的同时奉陪和反击，等待后面的政治、经济和军事发展再来决定如何选择前景问题；

第三种前景，就是从新冷战逐步转变成冒险的热战，如果发生，现在的热战不同于过去的枪炮常规战争，由于新冷战发生在强大的具有掌握毁灭人类的核武器国家之间，一旦进入热战，将是世界的悲哀，这是世界各国人民都不愿意看到的结果，也是本文作者不愿意臆测的前景。

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U.S.-China Cold War cannot be avoided
Li Jinwei
20200326

The Cold War refers to the half-century political confrontation between the capitalist camp led by the United States and its allies after the Second World War and the socialist camp led by the Soviet Union and its satellite states. The Cold War began in 1947 when the United States proposed "Trumanism" and ended in 1991 when the Soviet Union collapsed. The Cold War basically takes place in a special international relationship between the great powers. This is the general definition of the Cold War. The opposite of the Cold War is the hot war. The so-called hot war is the artillery war.
In the past 30 years, the Cold War has continued to manifest itself in the 2014 U.S.-Russian Cold War. The cause of the U.S.-Russian Cold War was Russia 's use of force to annex Ukraine 's territory and Crimea 's return to Russia. Russia's diplomats have been ousted by each other, arms export controls, and various economic and trade sanctions.
In the past few decades, China has implemented the national policy of reform and opening up, and its economic development has attracted worldwide attention. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China in 2012, China 's gross domestic product (GDP) was 8.56 trillion U.S. dollars. In terms of rankings, it has reached almost half of the US $ 16.16 trillion and leapt to the second place in the world.
When China's economic aggregate ranked second in the world, China's leadership also changed. In 2012, Xi Jinping became the fifth general secretary of the Communist Party of China after 1982 and proposed the ambitious "Chinese dream of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation".
Five years later in the 2017 U.S. election, Donald Trump won the 45th president of the United States, and Trump raised the slogan "America First."
According to the ruling styles of the two current leaders of China and the United States, two slogans determined to govern different countries know that they are both powerful and ambitious leaders. And the United States and China are both the most powerful countries in the world today.
Causes of the new US-China Cold War
To discuss the cause, it is necessary to talk about some major historical events related to the United States and China. These major historical events in the United States and China are basically:
The People 's Republic of China was founded on October 1, 1949, and the Korean War in which North Korea invaded South Korea in June of the following year. President Truman of the United States continued to pursue the idea of "containing communism" as the guiding ideology of the country 's political ideology and foreign policy and participated in the United Nations. At this time, the New China was defending Marxism-Leninism. Chairman of the CPC Central Committee Mao Zedong responded to North Korea 's supreme leader General Kim Il Sung at the request of "defending the country and defending the country across the Yalu River." In this war of millions of deaths and injuries, one fight is three years, and the United States and China have really been hostile for 20 years. Due to the hostilities between the United States and China, the United States imposed various blockades on China. The focus was on economic blockades. During the hostilities between the United States and China, the United States did not recognize the People 's Republic of China but recognized the Taiwan Kuomintang government as the Chinese government. The government had a large number of advanced weapons at that time to counteract the mainland's Communist government's possible recapture of Taiwan at any time. Therefore, China also lost the feat of regaining Taiwan. The Taiwan issue has always been the most important core issue of mainland China, and it remains so today.
The 20-year relationship between China and the United States is actually in the historical stage of the Cold War. Here I classify it as the old Cold War stage of the United States and China.
In February 1972, US President Nixon visited China at the invitation of Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai, and the door of China-US relations reopened. During Nixon's visit to China, China and the United States issued the "Sino-US Joint Communiqué" in Shanghai on February 28, 1972, also known as the "Shanghai Communique", marking the beginning of normalization of Sino-US relations. After another 7 years, diplomatic relations were not formally established until the signing of the communique on the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries on New Year's Day in 1979. On August 17, 1982, the full name of the August 17 Communiqué was signed. The Sino-US Communiqué on Solving the Problem of US Arms Sales to Taiwan was issued in the 1972-1982 10-year joint communique of the three major Sino-US diplomatic relations. The most controversial bulletin.
In addition to the communiqué on the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and China on New Year's Day in 1979, the "Taiwan Relations Act" came into effect on the same day that the US President Carter's government broke off relations with Taiwan's "Republic of China" to maintain business and culture with Taiwan and other relationships established through unofficial relations. .
On August 17, 1982, the United States and China signed the "Sino-U.S. Communiqué on Resolving the U.S. Arms Sales to Taiwan." At the same time, the United States proposed the "Six Guarantees" to the "Republic of China" government. The Chinese government did not recognize the Efficiency of the Six Guarantees.
In 2016, the US House of Representatives and the Senate passed a joint resolution, affirming that the "Six Guarantees" and the "Taiwan Relations Act" are guidelines for Taiwan-US relations and a commitment to Taiwan.
The six guarantees are:
1. The United States is not in favor of setting a time limit for arms sales to Taiwan;
2. The United States does not seek to mediate between Taiwan and the People's Republic of China;
3. The United States will not put pressure on Taiwan to negotiate with the People's Republic of China;
4. The United States' long-term position on Taiwan's sovereignty has not changed;
5. The United States has no plans to modify the Taiwan Relations Act;
6. The contents of the August 17 communique do not imply that the United States will seek Beijing's opinion before arms sales to Taiwan.
It can be seen from the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and China that although the United States recognizes the People's Republic of China as the sole legal government of China in the joint statement, the essence of the United States is simultaneously pursuing two China or one China, one Taiwan policy.
As we all know, the social systems of the United States and China are completely different. The United States is the Constitution of the United States of America formulated in 1787. The state structure is a federal system. The universally elected executive president, independent judiciary, and legislative parliament have three checks and balances. The two major parties, the Republican Party and the Democratic Party, take turns to govern the free capitalist federal system; China was the eight democratic parties under the leadership of the Communist Party on October 1, 1949, and announced that they had accepted the Common Program of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference as an interim constitution. Unify the multi-ethnic socialist system. The National People's Congress was established in 1954, and the first Constitution of the People's Republic of China was created in the same year. The Constitution stipulates that China is a people's democratic state led by the working class and based on the workers-peasants alliance.
In the past 41 years, although the United States and China have developed their own development models under the normalization of diplomatic relations, the various disputes and frictions in Sino-US relations before the current ruling leaders of the two countries have been almost every year. Yes, but the overall direction is to seek common ground while shelving minor differences. In a peaceful environment, especially with the support of the United States Clinton Administration in November 2001, the Chinese government, with Premier Zhu Rongji as the General Secretary, also made Various commitments to open market accession requirements, so the director-general of the WTO, Michael Moore, wrote to WTO members on November 20, 2001, announcing that the Chinese government had accepted the "China's WTO Accession Protocol" on November 11, 2001. Since then, China's accession to the WTO has made China's economy take off and develop rapidly. After 10 years, China's total economic volume has reached the second in the world. The original idea of the Clinton administration was to allow China to take off after the Chinese economy entered the WTO, while gradually transforming China's political system into a free and democratic government similar to Western society.
After the Second World War, the post-war world political and economic system dominated by the United States was established. It is clear that the United States, as the world police, has gained supremacy. Especially in economic terms, the United States does not allow other countries to surpass him, similar to the previous ones. Britain, and later Japan, when their economic aggregates can gradually compete with the United States, regardless of who the United States is, they will use all means to wield a big stick to suppress it; in politics, the United States mainly suppresses the powerful hostility seen from the United States. Faction, the former Eastern European socialist camp represented by the Soviet Union, which was hostile to key countries. In 1989, under the soft attack of the Reagan administration for many years, the then General Secretary of the CPSU announced the dissolution of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, which led to the sudden collapse of the powerful Soviet Union. The related socialist countries in Eastern Europe have fallen down to change the socialist state and put them into the embrace of the West.
On the basis of the reform and opening up advocated by Deng Xiaoping in 1978, China after 1989 continued to carry on its mission of keeping a low profile and focusing on economic development, while maintaining the socialist system unchanged after the disappearance of most of the socialist fraternal countries, and firmly taking its own path of independence. This path of independence It is the socialist road with Chinese characteristics.
When China's economy was strong, China proposed and implemented a major country's foreign policy and direction. This policy and direction was put forward by Wen Jiabao, then Premier of the State Council of China, in 2011 when he visited the earthquake-stricken area of Japan. "In the face of natural disasters, mankind is a community of destiny. "Later, the report of the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China was clearly expressed as a" community of human destiny ". By October 2017, General Secretary Xi Jinping clearly stated in the report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China: "The diplomacy of the great powers with Chinese characteristics should promote the establishment of new types of international relations and the building of a community of shared future for humanity." "Building a common destiny for mankind" has also been written into the UN Human Rights Council resolution. Diplomacy of great powers with Chinese characteristics promotes the construction of a new type of international relations and a community of shared destiny for mankind. The new type of international relations and the community of shared destiny for mankind are also regarded as two aspects of diplomacy of great powers with Chinese characteristics. It is also an important part of Xi Jinping 's socialist thought with Chinese characteristics in the new era. content.
Due to the rapid growth of China's economy and the huge accumulation of Chinese capital, it has created favorable conditions for capital export and overseas investment. The new economy, led by China, has gradually expanded along the Belt and Road. As of the end of October 2019, China has expanded to 137 countries and 30 countries. International organizations signed 197 "Belt and Road" cooperation documents.
All these US administrations, especially the administration after Trump's election, are vigilant and distrustful of the impressive changes that have taken place in China. From the perspective of the US administration, China has never kept its promises already made , Lack of integrity, theft of US intellectual property, disruption of the order of the world economy, and more. Not only do the United States and China have different national systems, they also have very different ideologies, human society, legal society, values, beliefs, and national governance. The United States has changed from anti-terrorism to anti-communism in the past two years. This has been made public, especially the current U.S. Vice President Pence and Secretary of State Peng Leo, who can almost always see their resolute anti-Communist speeches on various important occasions and public statements. President Trump sometimes makes public speeches. He has also mocked socialism many times. Although it is against Venezuela or Cuba, there is something in it. The current Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Pelosi, is also an active anti-Communist political leader who is very active in American politics. US-China New Cold War Form
On the political level, the United States found that nearly 20 years after China's economic development had accumulated huge wealth by giving China accession to the World Trade Organization, it was impossible to change China's transition to a free and democratic country politically, but to move towards authoritarianism. What the "anti-communist and anti-China" forces have to do is to create a new cold war environment. A new cold war or even a hot war with China has always been the dream of the "anti-communist and anti-China" forces in the United States. The wave of "China threat theory" in the United States is based on the new Cold War thinking that has become popular in the United States in recent years. In modern international society, differences in political systems are often one of the important sources of confrontation and conflict between countries. In this regard, the values of the United States and China are completely different. China believes that different political systems coexist harmoniously and develop together, while the United States often regards countries with different political systems as competitors or even enemies. The basic judgment of the United States now is that China's "authoritarianism" is becoming permanent. For the United States, what is even more serious is that more and more countries will follow the Chinese system. This is the biggest challenge and the biggest "threat" to American liberal democracy.
Economically, the Cold War mentality of China's economic system. Since China's reform and opening up, China's economic system has gradually matured, forming a "mixed economic model" with its own characteristics. In recent years, the United States has been promoting China's concept of "national capitalism." Just as the economic model of the former Soviet Union was the biggest threat to the US liberal capitalism model, China's "national capitalism" has been considered the biggest economic threat to American liberal capitalism. After Trump came to power, he launched a trade war with countries around the world to gradually reduce or balance the US-import and export trade deficits. The focus of the trade war launched by the Trump administration was China, because in the past 15 years, the United States and China The trade deficit is extremely unbalanced. The Trump administration believes that the wealth of the United States has flowed to China. The annual trade deficit is 500 billion US dollars. The US has accumulated huge losses over the years. Therefore, the United States wants to negotiate with China to reduce trade on a large scale. The deficit is to use import tariffs to adjust. After 18 months of high-level U.S.-China officials travelled more than 10 times in two countries for bargaining, it was finally difficult to sign the first phase of Sino-US trade agreement at the White House on January 15, 2020. That is, the United States asked China to conduct the second stage of structural reforms in trade. The United States had to continue the negotiations immediately, but was postponed because of the global pandemic of new pneumonia.
At the diplomatic level, after the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States on New Year's Day in 1979, before the respective heads of state of China and the United States took office, that is to say, the diplomatic relations between the two countries on the whole had more cooperation than differences, which was manifested in the frequent frictions between small things It happened, and major incidents happened by chance, but in the end, they conceded. For example, during the Kosovo war in 1999, on the evening of May 7, local time, and on May 8, Beijing time, NATO 's US B-2 bombers fired five precise guidance. A bomb or joint direct attack ammunition hit the Embassy of the People's Republic of China in Yugoslavia, killing three Chinese journalists Shao Yunhuan, Xu Xinghu, and Zhu Ying on the spot, wounding dozens of others, causing serious damage to the embassy building. The operation evolved into a diplomatic incident. A large number of Chinese people protested outside the US embassy. The incident triggered a conspiracy theory because of the previous shooting down of advanced US fighter planes. The US and NATO officials claimed that they had accidentally bombed and agreed to compensate. However, after the respective heads of state of China and the United States took office, major changes have taken place in the diplomatic level between China and the United States. China has initiated diplomacy in large countries. As of October 1, 2019, the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China, the total number of countries that have diplomatic relations with China. The number has risen to 180, and China has taken the initiative to seize the initiative in many diplomatic fields. It has continued to build a community of shared future for mankind, and signed 197 Belt and Road cooperation agreements with 137 countries and 30 international organizations. China's overall policy on diplomacy is that China's development cannot be separated from the world, and the world's peaceful development, prosperity, and stability cannot be separated from China. If the world is good, China can be good; if China is good, the world can be better. China has always placed its own development in the coordinate system of human development, always closely linked its own destiny with the destiny of peoples of the world, always combined the interests of the Chinese people with the common interests of peoples of all countries, and always became a builder of world peace and a global development Contributors and defenders of the international order contribute wisdom and strength to build a community of shared future for mankind and a better world. But the American ruling elites do n't think so about China 's foreign policy. They think that China 's aggressive "war wolf diplomacy" and the "new colonial diplomacy" along the Belt and Road Initiative. In its actions, the United States has openly established diplomatic relations with China. Countries, such as U.S. officials in September 2019 warned the Solomon Islands government not to pressure China to establish diplomatic relations with China ...;
On September 19, 2018, the U.S. Department of Justice required China's official media Xinhua News Agency and China Central Television's US-based branches to register as "foreign agents", which is on par with the treatment of two Russian state-owned media companies in the United States.
On February 18, 2020, the U.S. State Department announced that five mainstream official media organizations in China were identified as "foreign missions", which were considered part of the Chinese government and limited to 100 staff. The US State Department states that the five media organizations are Xinhua News Agency, China Global Television Network (CGTN), China International Radio (CRI), China Daily Publishing Company, and People's Daily publisher Haitian Development Corporation.
As a countermeasure, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced on March 17, 2020 that it will expel American journalists operating in New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and The Washington Post, as well as "Voice of America" and " Time magazine wants to provide the Chinese government with detailed information about its operations. At the same time, the American journalists who instructed the three news agencies to expire before the end of the year "report to the Information Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs 4 days from today and return the reporters' badges within 10 days." Almost all of the three news agencies' press badges in China expired this year.
In recent weeks, Zhao Lijian, a new spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said that the cause of the new pandemic pneumonia has caused the world pandemic. The source of the disease was tweeted in Chinese and English on March 13. ！ To make the data public! The United States owes us an explanation! ", The US State Department summoned Chinese Ambassador to the United States Cui Tiankai the next day, expressing strong protests on behalf of the Chinese government 's Foreign Ministry spokesperson suggesting that the coronavirus was brought into Wuhan by the US military. Two days later, Trump again drew 3 tweets with an emphasis on nature and 2 public speeches. The words pointed directly to "China virus. This is not discrimination. It is the correct term. I respect President Xi, but this The epidemic came from China ... ", Trump also said at a press conference at the White House on March 22," China concealed the epidemic. I discussed the matter with Chinese President Xi Jinping and asked whether the Chinese side could send Staff assisted them, but the other side did not want to and did not respond. " Earlier on March 11, U.S. National Security Advisor O'Brien accused China of initially failing to respond to the outbreak and concealing it. Geng Shuang, another spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, countered that O'Brien's statement was "neither immoral nor irresponsible, and did nothing to prevent and control the epidemic in the United States." At the same time, US Secretary of State Pompeo also accused the Chinese authorities of initially concealing the epidemic. In addition, American Axios reporter Jonathan Swan mentioned in an interview that Cui Tiankai made a statement last month-this is Cui Tiankai 's Sunday political program "Face the Nation" on February 9th on CBS TV in the United States China 's response to US Senator Corton 's allegations. Cui Tiankai said at the time: "Some people say that these viruses come from the US military laboratory instead of China. How can we believe these crazy remarks?" Axios produced a program broadcast on March 22 in cooperation with cable station HBO. An exclusive interview with Cui Tiankai, Chinese ambassador to the United States, was released in the evening. Cui Tiankai said in an interview that diplomats came to speculate on the origin of the new coronavirus as "harmful." Cui Tiankai said: " This is my consistent position. I thought so, and still think so. For these questions, of course, we must finally find the answer to reveal the source of the virus, but this is the work of scientists, not speculation by diplomats or reporters, because such speculation is not good for anyone, and Very harmful. "Cui Tiankai also stated that he is the representative of the Chinese head of state in the United States. On March 23, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang strongly protested Trump's" China virus theory ", and there were multiple attacks against Chinese Americans in the United States. In this context, Trump suddenly changed his tongue, saying that he no longer called the "Chinese virus", and his explanation was "to protect Asian Americans from discrimination."
At the military level, diplomacy and national defense are symbols of a sovereign country. The strength of a country can be seen by looking at the country's diplomacy and its national defense. China's rapid economic development will inevitably bring about military development.
The armed forces of the People's Republic of China are composed of the Chinese People's Liberation Army, the Chinese People's Armed Police Force and the Chinese National Army. They adopt a "party command gun" military leadership system. The Central Military Commission leads the national armed forces. Command the whole army. The armed forces of the People's Republic of China have an important position and role in the overall national security and development strategy, and shoulder the mission and responsibilities of safeguarding national sovereignty, security, and development interests.
The Armed Forces of the United States of America, commonly known as the U.S. Army, is the federal armed forces of the United States. At present, the U.S. Army is still the strongest military force in the world, and its size and equipment are ranked first in the world. The U.S. military is divided into six branches, namely, the Army, Navy, Air Force, Space Force, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard. The President commands the entire army. The United States has the world's largest nuclear arsenal and is the only country in the world that has used nuclear weapons in actual combat.
After the U.S. Pentagon released its 2019 China military assessment report, Xue Ruifu, assistant to the Indian-Pacific Security Affairs Department of the Defense Department, detailed China's attempts to use diplomatic, economic, and military influence to ensure its international status. Xue Ruifu said: "Our 2019 report finds that China seeks prosperity and strength in the coming decades, and the report states that China has a clear goal to make the Chinese army a world-class army by 2049. China may deploy submarines to The Arctic region to deter adversary's nuclear attacks. China continues to increase production of DF-26 medium-range ballistic missiles, which can conduct conventional and nuclear precision strikes on ground and naval targets in the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans. China uses a variety of means Access to foreign technology, including foreign direct investment, establishment of foreign R & D centers, joint ventures, research and academic partnerships, and industrial and cyber espionage. I think especially in new areas, they are in the areas of cyber, space, hypersonic, artificial intelligence A lot of money has been invested. So we see very aggressive (military) modernization efforts supported by a lot of resources. "
Comparison of US and Chinese military strength in six aspects: 1. Military expenditure (2018), US $ 600 billion, China: US $ 150 billion; 2. Military personnel, 1.33 million people in the United States, 2.33 million people in China; 3. Army equipment, United States 8,900, China 9,100; 4. Navy ships, US 415, China 714, aircraft carriers, US 10, China 2; 5. Air Force, US 13,000, China 2,500; 6. Nuclear missiles, US 1,750, 220 pieces from China. By comparing military strength, the United States clearly has an advantage over China.
The Trump Administration 's National Security Strategy Report and National Defense Strategy Report, which were issued in December 2017 and the U.S. Department of Defense in January 2018, both directly claimed that China and Russia were the main strategic competitors of the United States, and claimed that the United States would Gather resources to meet the challenges of China and Russia. A White House spokesman called this US National Security Strategy Report the United States' "new national security strategy for a new era." This appellation echoes the "new era" proposed by Chinese leaders, and its goals for China are clear.
Because of the absolute military superiority of the U.S. military, the U.S. military continued to show off its strength in the South China Sea Islands and Taiwan Straits in the military. It even entered the South China Sea islands within 200 nautical miles and rammed many times. The critical moment after flying across the mid-line or around the Taiwan Strait was entered by the aircraft carrier strike group into the Taiwan Strait. The slogan is: "Maintain free navigation in the South China Sea and maintain stability and peace in the Taiwan Strait." In recent weeks, it has also occurred that U.S. warships actually conducted live-fire exercises on the islands of the South China Sea and that U.S. bombers flew Hong Kong to show military strength and muscle.
At the legal level, I mainly mention the laws that have been passed by some U.S. federal lawmakers and passed by the U.S. Congress and signed by President Trump. These laws are related to China and are US domestic laws. :
Taiwan Travel Act, effective March 16, 2018;
Tibet Travel Equivalence Act, effective December 20, 2018;
The Hong Kong Bill of Rights and Democracy, which entered into force on November 27, 2019;
The Taiwan Alliance International Safeguards and Strengthening Initiative Act 2019, which came into effect on March 26, 2020;
In addition, the Uyghur Human Rights Policy Act and the Tibet Policy and Support Act 2019 have been passed by the US Congress.
From the legislature's legislature and the president of the United States Administration, they have publicly and publicly publicized these bills at the legal level. These bills have been proposed, discussed, debated, and then signed and made into law. The administration has to enforce them. It is very clear that this is the politics of American power. Part of China's content, which is also the substance of the US-China New Cold War, is marked on the legal level.
Every time the United States blatantly interferes in China's internal affairs, the Chinese government, including the Chinese People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, has expressed strong indignation and protest.
The other levels, not the skeleton level, are auxiliary levels, but they are also very important levels. I will mention them a little bit and will not discuss them again. Similar to communications, the focus is on restricting ZTE, Huawei Communications, Huawei Deputy Director on December 1, 2018 Meng Wanzhou, Treasurer and Treasurer, was arrested in Canada by U.S. judicial extradition and was arrested by the US District Court for the Eastern District of New York. It is mainly a bill alleging violations of U.S. sanctions on Iran and dozens of other criminal charges. President Trump also signed the "Secure and Trustworthy Communication Network Act" on March 12, 2020, prohibiting federal agencies from using ZTE and Huawei products; the Confucius Institute, the United States considers it to be part of China's outreach, and many people are engaged in and professional Irrelevant activities for the output and propaganda of the Communist Red Revolution; the Thousand Talents Plan, the United States arrested a number of researchers at American research institutions related to the Thousand Talents Plan, accusing them of selling high-tech technology and information for a large sum of Chinese money ; Information intelligence and computer hacking, mainly accused and wanted several named computer military personnel in Shanghai Pudong to invade and steal the confidential information and data of many important US federal and military agencies; spies, in the United States and China in recent years A number of related professional spies were arrested and sentenced to different lengths of imprisonment. At the same time, the US spy network in China associated with the United States was destroyed by China as early as 2010-2012, and the corresponding spy personnel were punished by law; knowledge Property rights are an old-fashioned issue. The United States has always believed that China perpetually and seriously violated the United States. Intellectual property causes the United States to lose $ 600 billion in annual losses ... The Cold War on many levels and other aspects are actively underway.
Features of the new US-China Cold War
Summarizing the above analysis of various levels, the characteristics of the US-China New Cold War were initiated by the United States, that is, the U.S. national leaders publicly opposed Communism and anti-socialism to personally take the initiative through various rallies, speeches and propaganda, diplomatic charge, and military support. Some positions of the alliance often support the United States to jointly launch an active offensive-type new cold war against China. In the process of the new cold war step by step, limited to China, which ranked third in the military in a strong position, the characteristics of the resistance to the new cold war are basically in a passive and obedient manner, that is, defensive. Consequences of the US-China New Cold War
The consequences of the new Cold War between the United States and China are extremely severe. This consequence has three possible development prospects:
The first kind of prospect is to gradually eliminate, and the level of confrontation will decrease year by year. This requires, in particular, that the US elite authorities recognize the development and rise of China, and that the Chinese leadership needs to adjust relevant US policies, which is a prerequisite for peace. We will continue to cooperate with each other in good faith, seek common ground while reserving minor differences, improve ideological propaganda, and establish a good relationship with the United States. Similar to China 's first visit to the United States after Deng Xiaoping returned to China in 1979 when reform and opening up started, and accompanied the visiting Chinese agency during the period Li Shenzhi, deputy director of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, asked Deng Xiaoping on the plane: "Why do we attach so much importance to relations with the United States?" Deng Xiaoping replied: "Looking back at the past decades, all countries that have good relations with the United States have become rich. "As for the pros and cons of the social system, it is judged by its own citizens;
The second prospect is to maintain the status quo, that is, to accompany and fight back while suppressing the United States' proactive new cold war, and wait for the subsequent political, economic, and military development to decide how to choose the issue of the prospect;
The third kind of prospect is to gradually transform from the new Cold War to an adventurous hot war. If it happens, the current hot war is different from the conventional artillery war in the past. Because the new Cold War occurs between powerful countries with nuclear weapons capable of destroying humans, once it enters the hot war, , It will be the sadness of the world. This is a result that people of all countries in the world are unwilling to see. It is also a prospect that the author of this article is unwilling to speculate.